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Germany looks to 2040 in new electricity sector scenarios

By: Bridget Randall-Smith 06/07/2020 BNetza

General Windfarms

Offshore wind will make a contribution of 28-34 GW by 2035 and 40 GW by 2040, according to a new scenario framework for the German electricity sector.

The transmission system operators (TSOs) handed over the draft scenario framework for the network development plan (NEP) 2035 (2021) to the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) for consultation in January 2020.

On 26th June, BNetzA approved and published the scenario framework for the upcoming Network Development Plan (NEP) Electricity 2035, Version 2021 . The assumptions contained therein are the binding basis for the TSOs' market and network calculations for the network development plan 2035 (2021).

Based on the goal of greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 and taking into account the Federal Government's energy policy goals, the draft scenario framework shows the likely development of the electricity sector up to the years 2035 and 2040.

In all scenarios, the draft framework envisages increasing electricity consumption compared to today. This arises from increasing electrification in the heating and transport sector and from the expected entry into Power-to-X technologies. Decarbonization measures in the industrial sector and the additional need for IT computing power due to digitization also contribute to this. In addition, all scenarios take into account both the nuclear energy phase-out by the end of 2022 and the coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest. Other areas of focus include increasing sector coupling, among other things through the National Hydrogen Strategy, and reduction of network expansion requirements through network orientation.

Building on the latest amendments to the WindSeeG Act and increases in offshore wind targets, the scenarios include offshore wind expansion to 20 GW by 2030 and 40 GW by 2040. To meet these targets the scenario framework includes 28-34 GW operational by 2035 and 40 GW by 2040.

Scenario framework 2021-2035

Expansion post-2030 is predominantly in the North Sea. The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) recently published a preliminary draft of theArea Development Plan (FEP), which provides a framework for the spatial and temporal development of offshore wind farms in the North and Baltic Seas. It considers areas N-11, N-12 and N-13 are most suitable for initial post-2030 deployment as well as further potential in areas N-4 and N-5.

Expansion in the Baltic Sea is considered limited; areas O-2.2 and O-5 are still subject to scrutiny in the FEP, while other sites are considered unsuitable due to environmental concerns and conflicts of interest. Furthermore, area O-6 is unavailable due to occupation by Gennaker project. However, the TSOs believe these areas could make an important contribution, pending further investigation and subject to availability.

" The scenario framework is the starting signal for the upcoming network development plan. We are focusing in particular on the coal phase-out. Another topic is sector coupling, for example electricity as a heat carrier in industry, power-to-hydrogen and electromobility, " explained Jochen Homann, President the Federal Network Agency. " The planning of the power grid always takes into account the current energy policy goals of the Federal Government. The transmission system operators are now required to determine and propose concrete grid expansion projects based on these new assumptions."

The electricity scenario framework will now feed into the NEP which will layout plans for required expansion to the electricity network including new offshore wind transmissionsystems. The TSO's will draw up a first draft of the NEP by the end of the year for consultation, with a second draft expected in April 2021.

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Germany looks to 2040 in new electricity sector scenarios

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